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The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific integration:a quantitative assessment

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While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific--the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track--could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. We estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. The tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: they generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The '21st century' template of the TPP would be especially productive because it is likely to offer opportunities for the leading sectors of both emerging-market and advanced economies. An ambitious TPP template would generate greater gains from integration than less demanding alternatives, but it will be harder to sell to China and other key regional partners as the TPP evolves toward wider agreements. The crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future.[by publisher]


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