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東協與中、日、台、韓之競合關係

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全球經貿與戰略競合,牽動亞太地區經貿地圖重整的方向與速度。由於美國、歐洲等傳統上的經濟大國需求不振、主權債務問題難解,使得經濟權力向東方轉移。新興市場對全球復甦的重要性大增,尤其東協繼中國大陸之後,成為世人矚目的焦點。東協不僅經濟實力上升,內需市場規模擴大,而且在對全球主要市場的出口上,競爭力也大幅提升。


台灣當前在外貿的拓展面臨瓶頸,對於東協市場的拓銷成為我國分散全球出口市場重要的佈局。然而,東亞各國早已注意到東協日漸強化的角色,並先後拓展與東協的經貿關係。其中,東北亞的中、日、韓三國最為積極,而此三國由於歷史、經濟關連性等因素,也與台灣的經濟發展戰略息息相關。因此,本研究以東協為主體,擬剖析中、日、台、韓四國與東協之間的經濟競合,藉此為台灣標定其對東協發展經貿聯繫時,應有的政策方向與具體政策建議。


首先,為了對東協整體經濟體質予以適當掌握,必須先瞭解東協各國的基本經濟樣貌,將各國間的差異進行歸納與匯總,然後才能與中、日、台、韓四國,進行有意義的比較。因此,鎖定東協各國,分別自GDP組成結構、成長率、貿易金額、成長率、貿易依存度、出口產業類別與市場分布、產業政策、人口規模…等總體經濟、需求面、供給面、政策面因素,以及中、日、台、韓四國與東協各國貿易投資關係進行分析,並輔以出口相似度指數(Export Similarity Index)計算東協十國自中、日、台、韓四國進口產品的結構相似度,挑選出台灣未來拓銷東協市場值得關注的產業類別。


其次,運用貿易優勢指數(Relative Trade Advantage Index,RTA),深入分析這些產業類別中,台灣主要出口的HS code 六位碼產品,在面對中、日、韓三國的競爭之下,我國產品的競爭力消長趨勢。另外,基於投資與貿易間緊密的內在關連,根據我國在東協十國的投資情況,將目前台灣在這十個國家的投資額高低,將東協十國分為兩組:「投資密集」與「尚待開發」,藉以建立分析的中間層次,不但有利於區分出關於東協十國的整體圖像,亦得出台灣產品在個別面對中、日、韓的競爭時,競爭力的現狀與過去三年來的競爭變化趨勢。


同時,本研究也參照聯合國對貿易財的財貨屬性分類,將所分析的貿易財區分為原物料、中間財(零組件、半成品)、最終財(資本財、消費財),以瞭解當前中、日、台、韓四國拓銷東協市場時將該地區視為加工出口基地或是著眼於當地內需市場,有助於我國未來拓銷策略的擬定。


在採取「由下而上」的研究方法,並透過座談會與國內外訪談專家業者意見後,綜合整理分析之結果發現1. 東協各國差異性方面:(1)在台商投資密集國(包括:新加坡、馬來西亞、印尼、泰國、越南、菲律賓)方面,A.除馬來西亞外,台灣具潛力拓銷產品主要仍以中間財為主。B.台灣具潛力拓銷產品與韓國的產品相似度高。C.台日雙邊在印尼、越南、菲律賓可能具有較佳的合作機會。D.台商投資密集國同時也是與台灣貿易額比重相對高的東協國家。(2)在尚待開發國(包括:汶萊、寮國、緬甸、柬埔寨)方面,A.台灣與中、日、韓三國的出口品相似度不高,具差異化競爭的基礎與彼此合作的可能。B.台灣出口最終財的比重相對於台商投資密集國為高。2. 就東協整體的共通性方面:(1)我國目前若干具潛力拓銷產品的競爭優勢有逐漸喪失的跡象。(2)我國無法儘速加入區域自由貿易協定是拓銷東協的根本障礙。(3)業者對當地拓銷資訊的掌握有限。(4) FTA雖然有助於台灣拓展東協市場,但產業競爭力的提升更為關鍵。(5)兩岸ECFA儘速完成將是業者深切的期盼。


最後,除了歸結出我國個別產業的拓銷策略外,對於從市場、拓銷通路與產業三個構面切入,需要政府採取政策措施加以應對的共通性拓銷策略建議,主要有1. 市場面:(1)提供並擴大市場商情資訊範圍,提高企業對東協市場的掌握程度。(2)為協助克服匯率相關問題,政府可以立即著手強化央行與經濟部之間的協作,使匯率政策與產業發展政策保持一致。(3)透過雙邊協商,協助廠商降低交易成本。(4)調整我國以中小企業為主體的產業格局,建構足以競逐國際市場,並對中、小企業有帶動效果的中大型企業集團。(5)加強參與區域整合倡議,降低各國對我之關稅與非關稅貿易障礙。(6)積極參與區域間總體經濟政策協調,避免我國匯率的相對不穩定。2. 拓銷通路面:(1)發掘當前「掌握當地經銷商和代理商等可能通路的聯繫者」相關工作的侷限性與盲點,改善資源配置與工作方法。(2)優先檢討改善資訊蒐集與分析工作,以及提升我國駐當地機構之功效與能量。(3)結合他國既有通路,建構雙贏策略。(4)針對數位化通路(或電子商務)的建構。(5)透過政府外交管道,鎖定目標市場國家建設計畫,拓展海外商機。3. 產業面:(1)改善我國促進研發與人才培育的相關政策。(2)加強改善、落實我國產品的品質與安全規範。(3)與當地合作,成立台灣-東協搭橋辦公室,負責連結台灣企業與東協台商及華僑之交流活動。(4)平衡國內產業結構。(5)調整我國以中小企業為主體的產業格局。(6)改善鋼鐵、石化等產業經營的不確定性,維護台灣整體產業的中上游競爭優勢。


Evolving economic changes and strategic interactions of major players in the global scale impact the pace and pattern of the Asia-Pacific regional economic landscape in its reshape. Economic power shifts from the West to the East due to the slowdown of the economic giants like US and EU, as well as the debt issues in Europe. It grows the importance of the emerging economies as global recovery is concerned. Among the others, ASEAN countries grasped the eyes of the world succeeding China’s rise. The growth of ASEAN countries’ economic might is demonstrated not only in the growth of its domestic demand, but also the competitiveness of their export products in the major markets on earth.


Due to its current bottleneck in expanding export, Taiwan is paying more attention to the ASEAN market as it is trying to diversify the destinations of its export. China, Japan and Korea, among others in the East Asia, have long been devoted into the exploration of their respective economic ties with ASEAN. Based on their historical and economic connection with Taiwan, their engagement in ASEAN is closely linked with Taiwan’s national economic strategy. Therefore, this study attempts to review the economic competition and cooperation between Taiwan, China, Japan and Korea in the ASEAN economies, so as to propose the proper direction of Taiwan’s strategy and policies regarding its deployment for expanding economic ties with the ASEAN.


Firstly, this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic constitutions of every ASEAN countries before their economic ties with Taiwan, China, Japan and Korea could be examined. By conducting detailed analysis of the demand, supply and policy factors, together with a summary of trade and investment of the 4 countries in every ASEAN countries, the study mobilized Export Similarity Index for measuring the similarity of export structure between the 4 countries in ASEAN market. All these analyses help us to target the specific categories of goods that deserve our notice as the potential for Taiwan’s trade and investment expansion in ASEAN is concerned.  


Secondly, taking advantage of the Relative Trade Advantage Index (RTA), the study probed into the 6-digital HS code products of the selected categories. The evolution the competitiveness of Taiwanese products, compared with those from China, Japan and Korea, is revealed by RTA figures. In addition, the study divided the 10 ASEAN countries into 2 groups (the intensively invested and the under-invested) based on the amounts of Taiwanese investment there. A mid layer for analysis between the individual ASEAN countries and the ASEAN as a whole was constructed, which will make it possible for the study to offer a general picture of the ASEAN market. And, the categorization developed by UN of raw materials, intermediate goods and final goods is applied in this study. By doing so, this study identified if any specific ASEAN country is seen as a base for processing or a destination of final goods in the eyes of the 4 countries compared. 


In the conclusion chapter, the study revealed its findings:
A.As the diversities in ASEAN countries are concerned,
i.In the Group of the intensively invested, 1) Except for in Malaysia, Taiwan’s potential for further trade and investment mainly lies in intermediate goods. 2) Where Taiwan’s potential lies is very similar to those of Korea. 3) There are more opportunities for Taiwan-Japan cooperation in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Philippine. 4) there is a high co-relation between the density of Taiwan’s investment and the volume of bilateral trade.
ii.In the Group of the under-invested, it is found that 1) the similarity of export structure of the 4 is low, which implies opportunities for cooperation between the 4 countries in this Group. 2) The percentage of Taiwan’s export of final goods to this Group is higher than the one in the Group ‘the intensively invested’.  


B.Seeing ASEAN as a whole, what deserved our notice are:
i.For certain 6-digital HS code products of Taiwan, the decline of competitiveness are observed.
ii.Taiwan’s failure, up to now, in joining the major REI initiatives and FTAs is a major obstacle for its trade expansion in the ASEAN countries.
iii.Taiwanese business communities require urgently more information about ASEAN markets and regulations.
iv.The upgrading of industrial competitiveness is essential, outside of Taiwan’s FTA engagement.
v.The ECFA negotiation needs to speed up.


The policy suggestions the study offered to the government follow:


A.Considered from the market side, 1) the government has to invest more into the collection and analysis of information of ASEAN market. 2) Enhanced collaboration between the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank is needed so as to offer a preferential exchange rate policy for trade expansion in ASEAN market. 3) By signing bilateral agreements, the government can help to lower the transaction cost of trade and investment in ASEAN market. 4) The government should actively participate in REI initiatives and regional macro-policy coordination.


B.To gain access into the ASEAN market, the government can help by 1) reallocating resources and reforming the management of Taiwan’s current efforts for contacting local agents and dealers regarding market accesses and logistics. 2) Reviewing and adjusting Taiwan’s current ways of information collection and analysis. 3) cooperating with the existing market accesses constructed by countries like Japan. 4) Establishing e-commerce channels into ASEAN countries. 5) Assisting Taiwanese business communities to engage into the business opportunities of national development projects in ASEAN countries.


Regarding the reshape of industrial structure, Taiwanese government has to consider: 1) to improve its policy for facilitating R&D and human resource development targeting at trade and investment expansion in ASEAN. 2) To improve the implementation of safety and security regulations of Taiwan products. 3) To establish mechanism for bridging the business communities of Taiwan and ASEAN countries, with the assistance of the ASEAN local society. 4) To restructure the Taiwanese industrial sector into a more balanced and diversified one. 5) To adjust the structure of industry which is current underpinned by the SMEs. 6) To eliminate the policy uncertainty for the development of key industries like steel and Petrochemical Industries.[轉錄自摘要]


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