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「國家發展前瞻規劃」委辦研究計畫:產業人力供需評估(含模型建立)

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本研究為一三年期中長程延續型計畫,主要考慮未來人口及產業結構改變,評估國內產業人力供需狀況與發展趨勢。第一年(2013年)推估方面,主要盤點各部會100、101年重點產業的推估模式並提供建議方向,且依據產業發展特性區分為不同產業特性類別,進行不同產業特性類別推估方法研擬(智慧綠建築產業、影視內容產業、數位內容產業、機械產業、花卉產業),以供政府單位及各部會之參酌。在中長期部分,本研究嘗試建構一適合描述我國經濟發展狀況之產業人力供需情況模型,並進行實際推估。


本計畫今(2014)年將延續上年的研究方向,在各部會重點產業部分,本研究計畫將持續盤點各部會推估調查方法且彙整調查結果,並增添102年各部會重點產業人力供需推估結果資料,綜合盤點100-102年這三年之重點產業人力供需推估狀況,並實際推估華文電子商務、LED、國際醫療(健檢、醫美)、雲端運算服務等產業;而在中長期方面,接續建構我國中長期整體供給面人力模型,藉以完成我國中長期產業人力供需評估機制;在上述短期及中長期產業人力供需等資料蒐集及推估結果之基礎下,本研究將嘗試整合上述短期各部會重點產業與中長期產業人力供需推估結果與國內政府機關所公布的勞動人力相關統計資料(如行政院主計總處、勞動部等),嘗試建構一產業人力供需平台之機制,以達彙整產業人力供需資訊功能。


Our study is a long-term (3 years) type plan. Considering the change of population and industrial development, we try to collect the trend analysis and evaluate the situation of the demand and supply side of industrial manpower. In the plan of 2013(the first year), we first count every ministry’s estimating modes of key industries (in 2011-2012) and provide recommendations direction, and then separate into different categories of industrial properties and their estimate methods which based on the characteristics of industrial development (green building industry, film and television content industry, digital content industry, machinery industry, the flower industry). Last, we provide the above results to the government and ministries as the future reference in policies. In the long term analysis, we attempt to create an industrial manpower’s demand model to predict the manpower situation.


The plan in this year (2014) will continue the previous research structure, countting every ministry’s estimating modes of key industries (in 2011-2013), providing the individual and overall recommendation directions, estimating the manpower of supply and demand of E-commerce industry, LED industry, international medical industry(medical beauty and physical checkup), and clouding industry. In long-term analysis, we continue the construction of manpower supply-side model in order to complete the assessment of long-term supply and demand mechanism of industrial manpower. Lastly, based on the above short-term and long-term industrial manpower’s estimation results of two sides of supply and demand, integration of domestic labor force related statistics published by government agencies (eg Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, and Ministry of Labor), we construct a web-platform (Industrial Manpower Supply and Demand Information Platform), it will provide domestic main industrial manpower situation and have the information exchange mechanism.[轉錄自2014年版摘要]


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