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中國大陸產業結構調整對台灣經濟之影響

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中國大陸的十二五產業政策規畫,將產生三大現象,進而影響台灣。首先,在該規劃下中國大陸期許建設成為一個工業強國,故將騰籠換鳥,以降低三高產業產能過剩為原則,將國家發展資源挹注在新興與高科技產業上(如新材料產業),使三高產業鏈移往東協,進而替代台灣。再者,從本研究多國產業關聯分析不難發現,對於台灣影響最大之產業仍集中於石油化工、金屬製品等產業,前者被替代程度除將隨時間升高外,後者金屬製品等產業則將產生低階移往東南亞生產的現象。最後,中高階產品則隨中部崛起及大西進計畫之推行,台灣相關產品被替代程度同時亦會升高,產生東協於民生工業替代中國大陸,而中國大陸於中階的面板及手機製造業則呈現替代台、日、韓的現象。


2010年底東協與中國簽訂自由貿易區協定,不但代表中國取代日本的領導地位,也反映出中國大陸由世界工廠轉為世界市場的野心,以中國大陸市場,引導東協與亞洲區域整合,亞洲雁行模式也將轉變為萬馬奔騰的合作模式,使得東協和中國大陸於歐美市場的競合關係發生明顯轉變。其中,上海、香港、曼谷、新加坡則成為區域整合的重要節點。


為了因應上述轉變,我國受影響之民生等製造業應於產品上注入新思維,有效提高產品差異能力與附加價值。並及早成立兩岸技術研發聯盟,鼓勵台灣創造多元品牌切入中國大陸內需市場,同時提升行銷能力。再者,兩岸應以新思路尋求合作切入回教等新興市場,如加強推動雲端等資通訊新興產業,藉由建構新興資通訊平台,結合2012年經濟動能推升方案中的自由經濟示範區概念,透過獎勵機制鼓勵業者發展跨境電子商務,由跨兩岸、進而跨到東協十國,以達成廣大效益。


There are three major concepts in China's 12th Five-Year Plan would affect Taiwan. First, the policy of emptying the cage for the new birds was designed to reduce the output of three major polluted industries which move to ASEAN and rather invest new high-tech industry such as new material. It is obviously that Taiwan would not only be replaced, but also Mainland China become Industrial powers. Second, the value chain of communication industry between Taiwan and Mainland is threatened with ASEAN. Finally, although Mainland China is the world's factory currently, it would become the world’s market soon, and ASEAN would be the supplier for commodity sector industry and materials sector industry.


In 2010, ASEAN and China signed a free trade agreement, which results in making China became the leadership and substitute for Japan, while China will become the world’s market rather than the world's factory. The status also indicated that Asian regional will be integrated forming demand of China market. Therefore, trade relations of ASEAN and China mainland will transfer the relationship of competition into cooperation in European markets. Among them, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Singapore has become an important node in regional integration.
In summary, our government should bring up new thinking for raising the diversity and added value for the products for the industries which be affected. Besides, Taiwan should strengthen the energy of R&D technology and marketing for ICT industry, and then weaken the disadvantage of the ICT industry relation between Taiwan and mainland China furthermore.


However, Taiwan and Chinese mainland should establish cross-strait technology development alliance early, and encourage the firm of Taiwan to improve marketing capabilities in Chinese mainland domestic market.
In other words, the demand of Mainland China would be increased especially for finance and ICT industry. That is, Taiwan should take this chance to develop Trades in Services with Mainland China as soon as possible, and cooperate to expand emerging markets such as Islam.[轉錄自摘要]


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