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我國電子電機產業未來之3E評估=The 3E evaluation of Taiwan electronic and electrical industry

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我國為一個自產能源不足的國家,能源依賴度達到99.25%,因此能源價格的提高將會對我國經濟造成衝擊,因此,產業能源需求的了解成為相當重要的課題。電子電機業在我國產值高,出口為主,在GDP 的推升上扮演重要的角色,所以本研究擬以我國電子電機產業為研究對象,利用向量自我回歸模型(VAR)與單變量模型分別探討當考慮節能與產量增加後,對整體能源需求與二氧化碳排放的影


響,結果發現,有考慮GDP 的VAR 模型上所得之能源需求與二氧化碳排放量均較單變量模型為低,顯示當我國步入已開發國家,經濟成長率相對以往低時,其能源需求較低,反之則較高。再者,利用可計算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE )探討當出口增加時,對整體經濟狀況。結果發現,我國電子電機產業的能源需求依舊以用電為主,成長率則呈現趨緩的趨勢。對整體經濟正面的影響隨時間有遞減的趨勢;在相關產業關聯上,主要正面影響的產業大都為電子電機相關產業,而負面影響大都為紡織產業。綜上所述,我國電子電機產業以出口與代工型式為主,但在中國的興起與印度成為軟體開發中心的雙重夾擊下,更應思考發展高階產品以增加其產值。


 


Our energy dependency reaches 99.25%. So, the raising of energy price has a negative effect on economy, therefore, understanding the energy demand of industry becomes an important issue. The electric and electronic industry plays an important role in GDP because their value


and export are high. As above reason, this study tries to discuss the effect of energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions when consideration of energy saving and product increasing. The result shows that the energy consumption is higher while use ARMA or ARIMA model. So while the growth of GDP is lower than before, the energy consumption is lower. On the other hand, their main energy demand is electricity and the growth rate is smoothing. Further, we use CGE model to discuss when the export of electric and electronic industry increases. The positive impact on the economy has a decreasing trend over time while export growth smoothly. The positive effect sometimes is related electric and electronic industry, the negative is textile industry. So, under the situation of faster development of China and the software development center in Indian may decline the output value of electric and electronic industry, we must think about upgrade our product to increase their


value-added.
[轉錄自本書摘要]


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