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氣候變遷調適對我國經濟之影響評估探討.(1/3)-(3/3)

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由於全球暖化的威脅程度日趨嚴重,世界各地紛傳環境災害事件,根據英國政府在2006年公佈的著名《史登報告》(Stern Review)指出:「全球暖化的破壞力很可能使全球經濟萎縮20%,全球只要增溫2度,經濟生產將會減少3%,每排放1公噸二氧化碳,就會造成至少85美元的損失,而未來10年全球經濟則可能因氣候暖化付出七兆美元的代價」。所以,世界主要先進國家乃將適應氣候變遷的衝擊-「調適(Adaptation)」,列為國家未來之安全防衛課題。
例如歐盟於2007年6月29日由歐盟執委會(Commission of the European Communities, CEUs)發布「綠皮書」(Green Paper),主要內容在制定歐盟的調適政策(Adaptation Policies),將是未來歐盟會員國制定調適政策的參考依據;再者美國國際開發署(USAID)於2007年提出有關脆弱性調適的程序,在這計畫中美國國際開發署關切的面向包括了和平與安全、政府、人類健康、經濟成長(農業、環境、經濟成長與貿易、能源)及人道援助等受到氣候變遷衝擊的影響及調適回應;OECD則認為調適政策發展策略可分為三個層級:國家層級、部門層級及地方層級,在推行調適政策時,需同時考慮由下而上(bottom-up)及由上而下(top-down)的推行方式。


經由本研究的深入分析後,發現我國在氣候變遷調適制度規劃與執行,及所提出的「氣候變遷調適政策綱領(草案)」已能與國際潮流接軌,但分析坎昆會議中所提出的氣候變遷調適方案,在原住民及調適資金項目仍有待加強;其次,在進行氣候變遷調適政策專家問卷調查後,本研究歸納建議水資源管理與防災為後續年度優先進行經濟影響評估之調適領域,其次為維生基礎設施、土地使用規劃與管理;最後,本研究建議運用地理資訊系統,以分析氣候變遷調適政策在國內各鄉鎮施行之效果。


因此,為因應氣候變遷「調適」措施日益受到重視,本計畫將研擬調適政策的優先順序及對經濟影響評估的方法,包括層級分析法、成本效益分析、空間影響分析與地理資訊系統等,並提出TAIGEM-III模型為我國調適政策經濟影響評估的工具。


As the threat of global warming day by day seriously, numerous environmental disasters are passed around the world. According to the British Government announced in 2006 the famous ' Stern Review ' said: 'The destructive power of global warming is likely to decline 20% of the global economy; the global warming 2 degrees as long as the economic production will be decreased by 3%, and per 1 ton of carbon dioxide emissions will result in the loss of at least $85; the next 10 years the global economy due to climate warming may be paid the price of seven trillion dollars.' Therefore, major developed countries of the world are going to adapt the impact of climate change as the nation's future secure and defensive issues.


For example, on June 29, 2007, the European Union issued 'Green Paper' by Commission of the European Communities (CEUs), mainly in the development of the EU adaptation policies. Green Paper will be EU Member States to develop a reference for adaptation policies in the future; furthermore, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2007 proposed adaptation procedures related to the vulnerability. In this plan USAID concerns many aspects including peace and security, the government, human health, economic growth (agriculture, environment, economic growth and trade, energy) and humanitarian assistance by climate change impacts and adaptation responses. OECD thinks that development strategies of adaptation policies can be divided into three levels including national level, sectoral level and local level. The implementation of adaptation policies must consider both bottom-up and top-down methods.


Through in-depth analysis of this research, we found that adaptation planning and implementation of climate change and 'The Framework for Adaptation Policy of Climate Change(Draft)' in our country have been able to connect with the international trend. However, analyzing the adaptation program of climate change in the Cancun conference, items of aboriginals and adaptation funds in Cancun Agreements are still to be strengthened; Secondly, after proceeding the expert’s questionnaire in adaptation policies of climate change, this research inductively suggests that water management and disaster prevention are priorities of adaptation areas in the assessment of the economic impact, then followed by living infrastructure, and land use planning and management; Finally, this research suggests that applications of Geographic Information Systems(GIS)are to analyze adaptation policies of climate change in the domestic effect of the township.


Therefore, the response to adaptation measures of climate change has received increasing attention day by day. This research will draw up priorities of adaptation policies on assessment methods of the economic impact, including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Space Impact Analysis and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This research also proposed that TAIGEM-III is suitable for assessment tools of adaptation policy and economic impact in Taiwan.


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